Quality of Life, Migration Intentions, and Perceptions of Public Policy in the Arctic
This study addresses population outflow from the Russian Arctic, a critical challenge to the region’s development. Declining population produces cascading effects, including labor market contraction, reduced local demand, and diminished economic activity. Small and remote settlements are particularly vulnerable, as depopulation undermines social services and infrastructure, further accelerating outmigration.
The Russian government recognizes this demographic crisis as a major threat to Arctic development and national security. Although partial stabilization occurred between the mid-2000s and mid-2010s, the Russian Arctic population continues to decline. Between 2011 and 2021, it fell from 2.615 million to 2.473 million residents, a 5.6% decrease, with regional data confirming ongoing outmigration.
In light of persistent demographic challenges, the study seeks to analyze the factors driving outmigration from the Russian Arctic and to develop evidence-based recommendations to mitigate their effects and stabilize the region’s population.
Context
One of PORA’s research priorities is to monitor key trends affecting the Russian Arctic, with the aim of raising awareness of existing challenges and developing solutions to address them. Given that the demographic crisis is among the most pressing challenges facing the region, PORA focuses on identifying effective strategies to mitigate it.
Methods
This survey of the Russian Arctic population addresses the region’s critical and ongoing demographic challenges, providing current empirical evidence on social well-being indicators and migration intentions.
The study aims to identify key factors influencing residents’ quality of life and migration intentions, including expectations for future changes, the proportion of residents considering outmigration, primary drivers of migration, at-risk groups, and regional social priorities. It also assesses gaps in government policies and the contributions of corporate and non-profit actors to quality of life.
The survey included 10,022 respondents from all Russian Arctic regions, with a margin of error not exceeding ±1% at a 95% confidence interval. Data were collected using mixed methods—70% online and 30% in-person—and analyzed using Latent Class Analysis to link quality-of-life assessments with migration intentions. The Theory of Change methodology was applied to identify policy gaps and evaluate existing support measures.
The research is based on data of the ongoing Social Survey Project:
Annual Comprehensive Sociological Survey of Arctic Residents
Results
Population outflow remains a significant risk for the Russian Arctic, driven in part by shortcomings in social policies targeting vulnerable groups. While most residents report satisfaction with their current quality of life—particularly youth, recent arrivals, and families with one child—pessimism regarding socio-economic prospects is widespread and strongly linked to migration intentions. Specific at-risk groups include young people pursuing education outside the region, families with multiple children, married women, and pre-retirement and older residents, who face challenges related to housing, social infrastructure, and healthcare. Key drivers of migration include low wages, labor market constraints, high living costs, and inadequate public services in areas such as healthcare, education, transport, and housing. The study highlights substantial regional disparities, underscoring the need for targeted, evidence-based policies that account for local socio-economic conditions and aim to enhance social well-being, stabilize populations, and promote interregional equality across the Russian Arctic.
Authors
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