Pavel Devyatkin Analyzes Historical Dynamics of the Russia-USA-China Triangle

Issues of mutual trust within the Russia–USA–China triangle were raised in a lecture by Pavel Devyatkin, Senior Fellow at The Arctic Institute (USA), Non-resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute (USA), and Visiting Lecturer at HSE University.

Since the 1970s, the ideologues and practitioners of American «realpolitik» have pondered the nature of the relationship between Russia and China: whether the Russia-China partnership is an «alliance of convenience» or whether these relations aspire to be a comprehensive partnership and strategic coordination. This question takes on particular significance in the context of the implementation of Russia’s state policy in the Arctic and key projects in the region, including those with international participation.

On February 26, 2026, a discussion was held at the PORА Expert Center platform on issues of mutual trust within the Russia–USA–China triangle, potential forms and directions for regional cooperation, as well as factors hindering full-fledged work among all interested stakeholders in the Arctic under current conditions. The lecture for participants of the international project laboratory BRICS LAB 2.0 was delivered by Pavel Devyatkin, Senior Fellow at The Arctic Institute (USA), Non-resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute (USA), and Visiting Lecturer at HSE University.

The expert spoke about the dynamics of relations within the strategic Russia–USA–China triangle, which have been characterized by alternating periods of increased and decreased tension since the late 1950s. These dynamics have influenced the security policies, foreign economic priorities, and spheres of influence of states in various regions of the world.

In a certain sense, Arctic policy serves as a litmus test for current international processes, demonstrating that the idea of «Arctic exceptionalism» has never hindered the pursuit and protection of national interests, including through the buildup of military presence in the region.

According to the expert, the United States has always been a «difficult partner» on the international stage, and the current tariff policies and territorial claims of the sitting US administration could potentially contribute to a rapprochement between Russia and China.

However, «the Russia-China partnership is more complex than it seems,» the expert added.

Objectives related to the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor could simultaneously create opportunities for expanding bilateral cooperation, but could also expose existing disagreements regarding the status and permissible uses of Arctic maritime corridors. For instance, China interprets the NSR as an international shipping route, while Russia positions it as an internal transport artery and considers it part of its national heritage.