Alexey Fadeev: A Russian Arctic Perspective on the US National Energy Dominance Council

March 24, 2026

The now-famous slogan «Drill, baby, drill,» which originally emerged in 2008, became a central element of Trump’s energy platform, emphasizing a focus on fossil fuels. The Energy Dominance Council was created as a unified headquarters to radically accelerate resource extraction and exports. It is worth noting that, thanks to a well-executed resource policy, the United States managed to become the world leader in oil production in the modern era. Thanks to the «shale revolution» and the development of new fields (Texas, New Mexico), the US achieved first place in daily production, a position it has confidently held to this day.

It is noteworthy that the US achieved this leadership in the absence of any significant traditional hydrocarbon fields: through hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technologies combined with horizontal drilling to extract oil and gas from dense rock formations, American technologies dramatically increased proven hydrocarbon reserves from shale formations.

Interestingly, these decisions come amid a rejection of the «green agenda» that the Biden administration and a significant part of Europe’s political elites believed in so strongly—the emphasis is placed precisely on increasing oil and gas production, rather than on developing renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the US officially withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement; the decision took effect on January 27, 2026. The Trump administration, after returning to power, reinitiated this process immediately after the inauguration in January 2025, abandoning commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The current situation, linked to the almost complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has nearly doubled hydrocarbon prices, benefiting all hydrocarbon-exporting countries, including the US, despite its attempts to partially lift sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil to reduce global energy prices. However, energy analysts believe that most of the crude oil already at sea has been purchased and accounted for, suggesting that lifting sanctions on this oil will not lead to a significant increase in oil supplies to the market and will not serve as an effective measure to reduce prices.

For the Russian Federation, the establishment of the US National Energy Dominance Council, which emphasizes fossil fuel extraction, is an additional signal that the chosen course for developing Arctic resources, including hard-to-recover reserves, is the correct one.

Experts estimate the hydrocarbon potential of Russia’s Arctic shelf at 100 billion tons of oil equivalent, which would allow for production for 200 years.

Separately, it is worth noting the hydrocarbon potential of Russia’s Arctic shelf, which experts estimate at 100 billion tons of oil equivalent. Is this a lot or a little? How long will these reserves last?

To answer these questions, let us try to assess this from the perspective of oil production volumes in Russia. In recent years, this volume has fluctuated around 500 million tons of oil per year. Performing a simple arithmetic operation—dividing 100 billion by 500 million—we arrive at the figure of 200. That is, the current hydrocarbon potential of the Arctic shelf represents the possibility of production for 200 years!

Of course, it is important to understand that these are forecast estimates, and we have yet to assess recoverable oil reserves, which constitute the portion of geological reserves that can be extracted from the subsurface through the rational use of modern technical means and production technologies, taking into account acceptable cost levels and compliance with requirements for subsurface and environmental protection.

However, the current geological exploration of the Arctic shelf does not exceed 10%, which means that the figures mentioned above may be revised either downward or upward. In the future, the largest hydrocarbon discoveries, if any are made, will be made precisely in the Arctic. Russia’s territory contains 73% of all oil deposits discovered in the Arctic.

Separately, it is worth examining the hydrocarbon potential of the land-based part of the Arctic zone. Specifically, this concerns the Bazhenov Formation—oil-bearing strata covering an area of over one million square kilometers, located at depths exceeding two to three thousand meters in the Arctic, particularly in the West Siberian Arctic, within Russian territory. The Bazhenov Formation concentrates the majority of Russia’s oil shale, containing both solid organic matter (kerogen) and light liquid oil from low-permeability reservoirs.

Meanwhile, the recoverable resources of the Bazhenov Formation are estimated, according to various sources, at between 10 and 60 billion tons. For comparison, global oil reserves are estimated at approximately 240 billion tons.

At the same time, traditional oil production technologies allow for the extraction of only about 30% of the oil contained in a reservoir, even with reservoir pressure maintenance. Consequently, after their application, approximately 70% of the oil remains in the reservoir, which is much more difficult to extract, necessitating the use of more advanced technologies, which in the future will further increase the figure for recoverable reserves.

It is evident that the existence of such a resource base in the Arctic strengthens Russia’s competitive advantages on the international stage, which previously led to attempts to involve the Russian Federation more actively in matters of achieving carbon neutrality.

The Arctic Development Project Office and the editorial board of GoArctic.ru do not always share the opinions expressed by experts.

For media representatives: the editorial board of GoArctic.ru welcomes republication of comments provided that an active link to the original source and the columnist’s status as an expert of the Arctic Development Project Office are indicated.