Annetta-Bakh Tsakhilaeva – on the Creation of the US National Energy Dominance Council

This is not merely an administrative reform, but a tectonic shift in the global paradigm. While previous administrations relied on the «green transition» as a tool for controlling industry and somewhat concealed this, the new US strategy reveals the harsh truth: energy is a weapon, and whoever controls its flows governs the world.

For Russia, Europe, and the entire world, this decision means the end of an era of relative predictability and the beginning of fierce competition, where the stakes are higher than ever. But Russia will cope.

The US is officially abandoning the role of «leader of the climate agenda» in favor of the role of «global energy sheriff.» Global supply chains are being reshaped. I believe the US intends to finally push Russia out of the European market, replacing pipeline gas with its own liquefied natural gas (LNG). This is being done not for the sake of ecology, but to eliminate a geopolitical competitor.

I think pressure on OPEC+ from the Trump administration will increase. Energy dominance is impossible without price control. The US will ramp up shale oil production to undermine the price leverage of Saudi Arabia and Russia, making their budgets deficit-ridden.

US energy dominance is an attempt to preserve dollar hegemony at any cost. Long-term contracts for American LNG are intended to halt the de-dollarization process actively promoted by the BRICS countries.

The paradox of the current moment is that by creating the Energy Dominance Council, the US is effectively acknowledging the existence of an equally capable player – namely, Russia. In a world where the «green agenda» is stalling due to technological dead ends, and traditional energy is regaining its status as a core value, Russia’s role is not only preserved – it is objectively growing, given our country’s ability to provide energy based on principles of stability, route diversification, and scale.

The Pivot to the East is a strategic asset for Russia. US attempts to isolate Russian energy have led Russia to accelerate infrastructure development. The Power of Siberia pipeline and the development of the Eastern Polygon are creating an alternative energy security system where the dollar and American rules are no longer decisive. This also entails an increase in technological sovereignty. Sanctions pressure has forced Russia to accelerate its own production of equipment for the fuel and energy sector (gas pumping units, LNG systems). In the medium term, this could make Russia’s fuel and energy sector less vulnerable to external shocks than the American one, which depends on global supply chains for spare parts.

In my opinion, our country has no strategic task or intention to compete with the US in «volume» of production (each has its own domestic economics), but rather a task to secure its status as a guarantor of energy stability for the countries of the Global South and Asia. In a world where American LNG is seen as a political instrument, Russian pipeline gas and Arctic LNG become a factor of attraction for sovereign states.

For Russia, the Arctic is not just a macro-region, it is the future of the national economy (projects like Yamal LNG, Vostok Oil, and many others). A clash of interests is inevitable: whoever begins industrial extraction on the continental shelf in harsh conditions first will gain control over Asian markets for decades to come. In this context, the role of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is significant. Russia views the NSR as a national transport artery. The US proclaims «freedom of navigation.» The creation of the Energy Dominance Council in the US will inevitably entail a strengthening of NATO’s naval presence in the region. For Russia, this means the need to expand its icebreaker fleet and coastal defense systems at double speed. This is a race where the loser loses sovereignty over vast resource-rich territories.

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